Sportsbooks take in more action and profit more on NFL games each week than any other sport in the US. Handicappers make a killing off of casual bettors who overwhelmingly bet on favorites regardless of the spread or on the more popular public teams like the Cowboys, Patriots, Packers, etc.
Aaron Rogers is coming off a 350 yard game, the Packers are having a great year, and they’re playing the Bears who suck plus have zero players pitching insurance or satellite packages during TV timeouts. The smart money is on the home underdog Bears giving up almost two touchdowns in bad weather at Soldier Field. The public goes with Green Bay. They lead wire to wire, outcome never in doubt, but give up a late touchdown with the game out of reach and win by 10. The sucker whose been high fiving and discount double checking all game is out $100 and Vegas cleans up taking his bet and thousands more just like it.
That being said, I LOVE the defending champ, road favorite Patriots this weekend, -6.5 playing the Saints in New Orleans Sunday afternoon. Here’s why:
- The last 4 years, the Pats are 11-3 against the spread coming off a loss, with an average margin of victory over 11 points
- The last time the Patriots started 0-2 was 2001. It was Belichick’s second year in New England and Drew Bledsoe started both of those games before a knee injury forced the backup, a no name second year sixth-round draft pick off the bench. Wonder what happened to that guy.
- During the Brady era, they’ve lost the opener twice (’06 and ’14). Following those losses, the Pats won their week 2 match ups 30-3 and 30-7. Nobody puts Tommy in a corner.
- New England, their defense especially, looked like shit, giving up 44 points in a 17 point loss. Primetime season kickoff game that EVERYONE watched. Public is probably a little down on the Patriots.
- -6.5, line less that a touchdown
- New England played on Thursday night, the Saints on Monday so the Pats have an extra 4 games of preparation. Coach has the team practiced everyday or did they get a day to rest and recuperate the Chiefs game?
- Numba 12, the Quahtahback, Brady, Touchdown Tawmy. He ain’t losin’. The kid’s wicked smaht, has a rawket of an ahm, and he’s got the haht of a fuckin lion. Good lookin kid too.
*Bonus pick – take the Over on the 56 point total
Even if Belichick and Patricia make some adjustments and the defense isn’t as bad, they’re not going to fix it in a week. And the pasta strainer the Saints call their defense has not subscribed to the No Days Off philosophy in quite a while, often taking Sundays off.
If you’re feeling frisky, parlay the Patriots and the Over.